Is Atlanta Braves Third Baseman Chris Johnson Really This Good?
by Michael Theed | Posted on Sunday, August 18th, 2013
It's not often that the throw-in player of a trade ends up being just as important as the main piece that was acquired. Usually, the individual who is "thrown in" to a deal is typically used as a stopgap to fill a positional need while the team waits patiently for a prospect to develop.
For the Atlanta Braves, they needed a third baseman coming into the year due to future Hall of Famer Chipper Jones deciding that 2012 would be his final campaign. Some figured that utility man and 2012 left fielder Martin Prado would take over at the hot corner for Atlanta.
However, Prado ended up being the main piece of a trade to the Arizona Diamondbacks, along with pitchers Randall Delgado and Zeke Spruill, minor league third baseman Brandon Drury, and minor league shortstop Nick Ahmed in exchange for outfielder Justin Upton and third baseman Chris Johnson, who was essentially the "throw in" of this trade.
As it turns out, Prado has been the main third baseman for the Diamondbacks and has put up solid numbers. A slash line of .275/.329/.403/.732, which is below his career averages, albeit still good, with 26 doubles, 10 homers, and 53 runs driven in. Johnson, on the other hand, has put up the strongest season of his career, currently pacing the National League in batting average.
Chris Johnson is currently boasting a slash line of .336/.373/.477/.850, the average being 11 points higher than the second highest average, held by Yadier Molina. Along with that strong slash line, Johnson has hit 26 doubles, nine long balls, and knocked in 53 runs.
Chances are, Johnson would have had many more RBI on the season, if not for the fact that he had been batting seventh and eighth for most of the season until somewhat recently, now consistently batting fifth in the Braves lineup.
With runners in scoring position, Johnson is posting a slash line of .337/.385/.547/.932, and with two out RISP situations, he's been even better, hitting .395/.469/.581/1.051 in those scenarios.
With the slash lines that he's put up, one has to wonder, is Chris Johnson really as good as he's been this year, or has he just been getting lucky? The fact that he's been consistent throughout the year would absolutely solidify the former argument, but certain statistics say otherwise.
Johnson has put up a ridiculous BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play) this year of .412, which leads the Major Leagues by a wide margin. A BABIP of that magnitude is generally achieved by hitters who are just having massive amounts of good luck, and is more than likely unsustainable over more than one season. To see just how lucky Chris Johnson has been, though, the statistic xBABIP (expected batting average on balls in play) is used.
As explained by fangraphs, xBABIP is calculated in this way:
xBABIP = (( GB – IFH ) * (GB-IFH constant) + (FB-HR-IFFB) * (OFFB Constant) + LD * (LD Constant) + IFH + BUH ) / (GB + FB + LD + BU + – HR – SH)
The constant used for GB-IFH was .195, .134 for the OFFB constant, and .740 for the LD constant. All three numbers were the average contact number from 2009-2011. To determine the exact amount of luck, xBABIP is subtracted from the player's actual BABIP (thus, BABIP - xBABIP, simple enough).
For example, the luckiest hitters in 2012 were Justin Ruggiano (0.0809), Tyler Colvin (0.0610), Torii Hunter (0.0585), Jayson Werth (0.0538, although his season was shortened by injuries), and Miguel Montero (0.0532). If Johnson were having his 2013 season in 2012, he'd place second on this list. His current xBABIP sits at .345, making his amount of luck pretty high, as his BABIP - xBABIP number sits at 0.0673. Thus, he has, indeed, been getting incredibly lucky.
Of those five players listed, only one (Werth) has done better this year than last, with Hunter being the closest to his stats from the previous season, and that's most likely due to the protection he has in his lineup.
The other three have dropped way down, with Ruggiano hitting .209/.284/.387/.672 (albeit, he just came out of an 0-42 slump) [.313/.374/.535/.909 in 2013], Colvin sitting in AAA after struggling in the MLB a season after putting up a career year (2013 slash line of .160/.192/.280/.472) [.290/.327/.531/.858], and Montero, currently injured, was posting a line of .228/.316/.345/.661 [.286/.391/.438/.829].
I hate to break it to you, Atlanta fans, but don't look for Johnson to put up numbers anywhere near what he's done this year in future seasons.