When Did Theo Epstein Become A Genius?

Who labelled Theo Epstein a genius?

At what point did he become a genius?  A Stat Head?  A Saber God?  A Money ball Master?

I dove into the Red Sox success of 2004 and 2007 to see how much “home grown” talent helped them win 2 championships in a 4 year span.  Surely there was a ton of in house talent that was groomed for greatness causing Theo to be the hottest thing on the market when the Cubs signed him and his disciples to move west to Wrigley.

Let’s start off by looking the who got them to the playoffs in 2004.  Who were the top 5 players in HR in the 2004 regular season?

Manny Ramirez – 43hr – Free Agent, PED user

David Ortiz – 41hr – Free Agent PED user

Johnny Damon – 20hr 19sb (tops on team) – Free Agent

Jason Varitek – 18hr – Acquired via trade (1997) from Seattle with Derek Lowe for Heathcliff Slocumb

Kevin Millar – 18hr – Purchased in 2003 from the Marlins

So of the top 5 hr producers, 4 of the 5 were bought with the big money Red Sox bank account.  Only Varitek was acquired via trade.  What did Boston give up in that trade?  A reliever with a 5.79 ERA, but it was a trade so we will give them credit for getting a decent deal.

Their top 2 relievers that year were Mike Timlin (free agent) and Alan Embree (acquired via trade mid 2002), their closer was my guy, ex White Sox reliever Keith Foulke another free agent acquisition.

Let’s take a look at the starting rotation.

Curt Schilling – 21 wins – Traded from Arizona to Boston (2003) for Michael Goss, Casey Fossum, Brandon Lyon, and Jorge De La Rosa

Pedro Martinez –  16 wins – Traded from Montreal to Boston (1997) for Carl Pavano and Tony Armas

Tim Wakefield –  12 wins – Signed as free agent (granted he was coming off a real bad year and they signed him for almost nothing)

Derek Lowe – 14 – Acquired with Varitek in the Seattle trade (1997)

Bronson Arroyo – 10 wins – Acquired on waivers from Pittsburgh  (2003)

So there you have it, 4 of the top 5 HR guys were bought not drafted or traded for, along with 2 of the top 3 relivers.  I will give Boston credit for the starting 5, they traded decent talent for Pedro, Schilling, Lowe, and Arroyo was a waiver deal.  However Epstein didn’t become GM until after the 2002 season had ended.  The only players that had an impact in 2004 that have his fingerprints on them is Schilling and Arroyo.  All the others were bought or acquired before he was the GM.  So tell me again why he is considered some type of genius for winning a championship with a team that somebody else built?

In 2007 let’s see what changed.  Changes in the top 5 HR producers Mike Lowell and Kevin Youkilis.

Mike Lowell – 21 hr – traded to Boston in 2005 with Josh Beckett and Guillermo Mota from Florida for Jesus Delgado, Harvey Garcia, Anibal Sanchez and Hanley Ramirez

Kevin Youkilis – DRAFTED IN THE 8^TH ROUND BY BOSTON IN 2001!!  Praise the lord!  Finally a home grown player, again not drafted on Epsteins watch but nonetheless a home grown player.

Top relievers there were 6 that were fairly important in 07

Jonathan Papelbon – Drafted by Boston in 2003

Hideki Okajima – Free agent signed in 2006

Mike Timlin – Free agent signed in 2003

Kyle Snider- Acquired via waivers in 2006

Javier Lopez – Originally drafted by Boston in 2002 but traded away, reacquired in mid 2006 from the White Sox for David Riske

Manny Delcarmen – Drafted by Boston in 2000

And the starting 6, Lester made 12 starts that year.

Curt Schilling – 21 wins – Traded from Arizona to Boston (2003) for Michael Goss, Casey Fossum, Brandon Lyon, and Jorge De La Rosa

Tim Wakefield –  12 wins – Signed as free agent (granted he was coming off a real bad year and they signed him for almost nothing)

Josh Beckett – 20 wins – traded to Boston in 2005 with Mike Lowell and Guillermo Mota from Florida for Jesus Delgado, Harvey Garcia, Anibal Sanchez and Hanley Ramirez

Daisuke Matsuzaka – 15 wins – Purchased from the Seibu Lions in 2007

Julian Tavarez – 7 wins in 23 starts – Free Agent

Jon Lester – Drafted by Boston in 2002

So again there you have it how many players were drafted or traded for by Epstein on the 2007 team?  Papelbon, Snider, Lopez, Schilling, Beckett and Lowell.  That’s an ok job on the pitching side with 2 stud starters and a good closer but again none of the big boppers on offense have his fingerprints other than Lowell.  He says he has a plan in Chicago with the Cubs, let’s see if he can build a winner, time will tell.  If he does, Then I will anoint him a genius for accomplishing something nobody has in 105 years and counting.